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Saturday, May 24th, 2008

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PLAYING IT SMART
by Alan Krigman

How much more bankroll do you need when you bet bigger?

Say you’ve been playing casino blackjack fairly regularly for a long
time. You’re not exactly a high roller betting $10 per round on a $500
stake but they treat you OK. You’re happy with a $100 profit and always
quit as soon as you pass that point. Obviously, you hate losing. But you
don’t panic when you encounter a cold streak. And you’re willing to
spend down your $500 waiting for luck to change because history shows
this doesn’t happen often. More frequently, when conditions are
inauspicious, you run out of time well before you scrape the bottom of your fanny
pack. And, even if you do go belly-up, you find you’ve usually had a
lengthy enough session that you deem it worth the recreational value.

This isn’t a self-delusional matter of remembering the high times and
forgetting the low. The math behind the game backs it up.

With the bankroll, win goal, and bet size cited, a blackjack player
following good Basic Strategy can expect four successful sessions for
every failure. Monetarily, that’s $400 or more up and $500 down, on the
average, for five games. The loss is under $20 per casino visit, some or
all of which is covered by comps for the buffet. And, in any event, it’s
less than the cost of a movie ticket and a pizza. Moreover, the chance
is nearly 95 percent a $500 stake will be good for at least 500 rounds
— roughly seven hours’ action at a table with four other players.

Maybe you don’t play blackjack. But comparable numbers pertain to
sessions of reasonable duration at most table games. So similar scenarios
would hold for many sensible, savvy solid citizens who think casinos give
them a good bang for their leisure buck.

At any rate, pretend you get to mulling over the fact you come out a
bit ahead at the end of the year considering comps, gifts of tasteless
merchandise, and invitations to exclusive events. Such being the case,
there ought also to be a way to do as well or better with bigger bets.
And you know, for instance, that at $25 tables, not only are there fewer
yahoos ruining the game for everyone else, but comps are more lavish
and a gracious host may even become your new best friend. But, is this
really true? And, if so, how must you modify your modus operandi for it
to work?

You’ll be tickled pink to know it’s true. Provided you keep your bet,
bankroll, and earnings target in proportion, all the math is identical.
You’re multiplying your bet by 2-1/2 to get from $10 to $25. So you’d
similarly scale-up your bankroll to $1,250 (2.5 x $500) and win goal to
$250 (2.5 x $100). At these levels, odds remain 4-to-1 you’ll go over
the top before hitting the soup, and you still have almost 95 percent
chance of being in the thick of things for at least 500 rounds.

Bet higher without increasing your stake accordingly and your prospects
dim, however. Raise your bankroll in proportion to your bet but keep
your win goal at the original level or boost it by a lesser factor and
the odds you’ll succeed improve. For example, bet $25 on a $1,250
bankroll, holding the $100 earnings target, and the odds favor ecstasy over
agony by 9-to-1. With a $200 win goal, they exceed 5-to-1. And, you
continue to face only 5 percent chance of being sent to the lockers within
500 rounds.

One caveat is that while the chance you’ll reach your loss limit before
your win goal is no worse, or possibly better, a sporadic $1,250 rout
may knock you for a loop whereas you could handle a $500 whack now and
then. And, odds notwithstanding, two routs in a row are hardly
impossible. These kinds of losses lure folks to cash machines, thinking they
can recover with only $500 more. You don’t need a gambling guru to tell
you where that leads.

Another danger is that a $100 payday may seem fine when you’re risking
$10 per round. But $250 may look like chump change in a $25 game.
Especially with little Wormwood whispering in your hearing aid how easily
you could get it up to $300; just two more wins. And you’re on a roll,
right? So, before making an illogical decision based on what you think is
a logical analysis, reflect on this rhyme by the inimitable inkster,
Sumner A Ingmark:

Percentage earnings don’t always count,
The bill collector wants an amount.